Thursday, December 1, 2011

Case Shiller Housing Index....a crash course.


You may have heard the Case-Shiller Housing Index mentioned on the news. But what exactly is it, and why should you care? 

Contrary to its name, but Case-Shiller Housing Index is actually several indexes, including the national home price index, the 10-city composite index, the 20-city composite index, and twenty individual metro area indexes for the cities included in the 20-city composite index.

Aren’t you glad we cleared that up? [insert eye roll here]

Alright, let’s break it down.

National home price index—this is a quarterly index [published in February, May, August, and November], which covers the nine major census divisions, as pictured below.

Nine Major US Census Divisions
                   
10-city composite index—this includes Washington, DC, San Francisco, San Diego, Miami, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Denver, Chicago, and Boston.

20-city composite index—this includes all the cities in the 10-city composite index, plus Atlanta, Cleveland, Charlotte, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Portland, Seattle, Tampa, and Phoenix.

All of these indexes except the national index are published on the last Tuesday of each month. There is a two-month lag with each publication, so, for example, the August publication only includes information through June.

Each index measures changes in the price of single-family homes, by comparing the difference between the most recent sale price and previous sale prices. 

The purpose of the index is to show whether home prices are going up or down, and by how much. Here’s why the Case-Shiller housing index is relevant to you—if you’re trying to sell your home, but the index shows that housing prices are going up, you might want to wait to sell. If you’re buying, you might want to hurry up so you can get a good deal. If the index shows housing prices going down, you’ll want to hurry and sell so you can get the highest sale price possible, and if you’re buying, you might want to wait for a better deal.

But what if you aren’t in the market to buy or sell a house? Is the index still relevant? Yes, because the Case-Shiller housing index is an indicator of how the economy is performing overall. For example, the index shows whether or not people are confident enough in the economy to make an expensive purchase. Much of the way the economy performs is a result of the way people expect it to perform, because generally people’s actions follow their expectations. But that’s another post…

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Tax Credits Vs. Tax Deductions

People often use the terms “tax credit” and “tax deduction” interchangeably. But are they the same, really? And if not, is one better than the other, or does that depend on the situation?

To answer the first question, no—a tax credit is not the same as a tax deduction. A tax credit lowers your tax bill dollar for dollar, while a tax deduction lowers your taxable income. So what does that really mean?

Let’s say you receive a $1,000 tax credit. You’ll simply pay $1,000 less in taxes, regardless of your tax bracket. A $1,000 tax deduction on the other hand, is dependent on your tax bracket. If you’re in the 25% tax bracket, a $1,000 tax deduction will lower your tax bill by $250 (25% of $1000). Tax deductions are typically given in higher tax brackets. Clearly, you’ll save more money with a tax credit. (You can’t claim a tax credit and a tax deduction on the same item, for those who were wondering.)
Pretty straightforward, right?

Unfortunately, not exactly. Our current tax system is—well, a convoluted mess that only helps tax accountants and lawyers. The first time the tax code was published in 1913, it was a “mere” 400 pages. As of 2011 it has ballooned to 72,536 pages.

Needless to say, it’d be pretty impossible to understand, much less follow the entire thing. And that’s where the problem comes in.

Recall, what we talked about earlier—a tax credit will save you more money than a tax deduction.
So what does this have to do with the tax code being over seventy-two thousand pages long? Let’s take a look at the American Opportunity tax credit…

The American Opportunity tax credit, which recently replaced the Hope tax credit, can reduce your taxes by up to $2,500 on the first $4,000 of qualifying educational expenses. This means that you can receive a tax credit on 100% of the first $2,000 of qualifying expenses, and 25% of the next $2,000. The income cutoff for the tax credit is $180,000 for those married filing jointly, and $90,000 for those filing single.  Okay, so there’s nothing odd about that.

So let’s move on to the Tuition and fees deduction. You can deduct up to $4,000 in qualified educational expenses if you’re married filing jointly, and your income is not more than $130,000, or $65,000 if you’re filing single. If your income is more than $130,000 ($65,000 filing single), but not more than $160,000 ($80,000 filing single), you can deduct up to $2,000 of qualifying educational expenses.
But wait. Aren’t deductions generally supposed to be for those in higher tax brackets?So why isn’t that the case here, if your income is between $130,000 ($65,000 single) and $160,000 ($80,000 single)?

Remember when I said that the American Opportunity tax credit replaced the Hope tax credit? The American Opportunity tax credit has higher income limits than the Hope tax credit did, but the income limits were not increased on the Tuition and Fees deduction. So here’s a case where a tax credit and a tax deduction overlap.

And that’s the problem lots of taxpayers are running into with our current tax code. It doesn’t follow the rules, and in many cases it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. It’s easy to see why many people don’t take advantage of as many tax credits and deductions as they could.

Is there a solution to this? In short, yes…but that’s a whole other post. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Unemployment—is it really getting better?

Politicians on a local, state, and national level have been saying for a while that the unemployment rate is going down overall. But if you’re like me, you’ve seen very little job creation as of late, and you watch the news only to hear about more people who are losing their jobs. So what gives?

What you may not know is how the unemployment rate is calculated. An organization called the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the unemployment rate for the United States on a monthly basis, and publishes it on the first Friday of every month. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number in the civilian labor force by the number of unemployed. Seems pretty straightforward, right? Well, lets take a look at some terms, and we’ll see why the unemployment rate doesn’t necessarily correspond with what we see as reality.

Civilian labor force—the civilian labor force includes any civilian who is 16 years or older and who is not institutionalized. Those who are under the age of 16, or who are institutionalized—in prison or a nursing home, for example—are excluded, in addition to those on active duty in the Armed Forces (there’s a good reason as to why those on active duty in the Armed Forces are not included, but I’ll save that for another blog post).

 Unemployed—simply not having a job doesn’t mean you’re unemployed. In order to be counted as unemployed, you must 1) not have a job (go figure!), and 2) have actively looked for a job in the past four weeks. You’re also counted as unemployed if you were temporarily laid off. However, if you’ve given up looking for work, you won’t be counted in the unemployment rate. If you’ve worked, or looked for work in the last twelve months, but are not currently employed, you’re considered a “discouraged worker.”

Now it’s easier to see why the unemployment rate seems skewed—discouraged workers aren’t counted.
Another reason that the unemployment rate seems skewed is that it’s what economists call a lagging indicator—meaning that it measures the effect of economic events after they have started. So unemployment rates will begin to rise after a recession begins. They will also continue to rise after the economy has begun to recover.

The unemployment rate should be used in combination with other economic indicators for a more accurate picture of what the economy is doing. For example, if consumers are spending more money on “durable goods,” (expensive items that are expected to last more than three years, and the consumer confidence index, which measures how consumers feel about the economy, are rising, and the unemployment rate is falling, the economy is probably getting better. But the unemployment rate alone is probably not a great indication of the actual state of the economy. 

Friday, October 21, 2011

Short Sale vs. Foreclosure: The Less Painful Option?

According to Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac Inc, 1.2 million homes will be repossessed in 2011, breaking the 2010 record of 1 million.  Last year alone, one in 45 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing—that’s 2.9 million households.

Pair these staggering numbers with an unemployment rate above 9%, and it’s enough to make anyone nervous.  Like millions of Americans, you may have found yourself struggling or unable to pay your mortgage, and are now facing the possibility of losing your home. And unfortunately, that’s not where it ends—foreclosure devastates your credit score, and follows you around for years afterward.

You may have another option if you’re facing foreclosure—a short sale. A short sale is a settlement in which you sell your home for less than what you owe to your lender, and typically the lender forgives the rest of the loan.

A short sale is definitely a better option than a foreclosure if you can get your lender to agree to one, but keep in mind that it will still affect your credit, though not as much as a foreclosure.

This may be an obvious statement, but if at all possible, avoid a foreclosure—it will haunt you for a long time. Consider a short sale instead, and talk to your lender quickly, while you have some options. A short sale is a lengthy process, with lots of paperwork and negotiation involved, so it’s best not to attempt it on your own. Be sure to find a qualified real estate agent, who can be your advocate and work on your behalf—they’ll make the process a lot less painful.